28 September 2026
This week kicked off with China’s industrial profits rising 15.7%yoy in the first eight months of the year to CNY5.27 trillion, although the pace of growth eased to 4.2% in August from 11.2% in July.
Central bank commentary will be a prominent feature of the week. Later today, Lagarde speaks at the quarterly Monetary Dialogue, while Machado, Elderson and Pereira attend separate events. Bowman, Cook and Barkin, and Ramsden also make appearances. Eurozone economic confidence, UK mortgage approvals and US Conference Board confidence and JOLTS job openings are due on Tuesday. On a busy day for central bank commentary, we will hear from Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, Barr and Waller, alongside Lagarde, Vujcic, Cipollone and Lane, and Taylor and Mann. On Wednesday China’s official and RatingDog PMIs, inflation prints across the EU, UK GDP and US consumer confidence, PCE price index, GDP and ADP employment figures will be watched closely by markets. Thursday sees global PMI prints, eurozone unemployment, US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the FOMC minutes. We also have a further busy day of central bank commentary. Eurozone CPI and the US employment report will be key for markets on Friday.
Last week, global markets were shaped by rising US Treasury yields, resilient US economic data, heightened US-Iran tensions, developments in US–China trade relations and continued strength in technology stocks. Markets also remained sensitive to shifting oil and gas prices, particularly as concerns over a possible escalation in the Middle East raised questions about energy supply, inflation and monetary policy.
In asset markets, the S&P 500 Index closed the week 1.21% higher, supported by strength in mega-cap technology and artificial intelligence-related stocks. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.16%. The rise in longer-dated Treasury yields, alongside expectations of further Fed tightening, supported the US dollar, with the DXY Index up 0.75%. Oil prices, meanwhile, remained volatile. Brent crude rose 0.43% to $104.32pb amid concerns that escalating US–Iran tensions could threaten production, exports or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
US monetary policy remained a key focus as several officials reiterated concerns over inflation and indicated that further tightening could be required. Collins argued that a more restrictive policy stance was necessary to return inflation sustainably to target, while Barkin pointed to resilient demand and broader inflationary pressures beyond energy and tariffs. The renewed geopolitical risk also complicated the policy outlook: elevated oil prices could push inflation higher in the near term, while weaker confidence and tighter financial conditions could weigh on growth.
US–China relations were also closely watched. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held preparatory talks in New York ahead of President Trump’s meeting with President Xi Jinping in Washington. The discussions covered trade, technology and AI, while the two sides subsequently agreed to extend their existing trade truce, providing additional time for negotiations. The Trump–Xi summit produced a more constructive tone, although significant issues around tariffs, technology restrictions and rare-earth supplies remain unresolved. The renminbi remained relatively stable against the dollar during the week despite renewed strength in the US dollar, consistent with the currency continuing to trade within a relatively narrow range.