For professional clients only. The information contained within this post is not intended for retail clients.
29 October 2026
Adyen’s 13% share price decline highlights a growing disconnect between strong underlying business momentum and investor concerns over near term profitability. We believe the market may be overlooking the bigger picture.
Adyen delivered a strong operational performance, with net revenue growing 22% at constant currency and processed volumes increasing 30%. These figures comfortably outpace the broader market and challenge concerns that intensifying competition is beginning to erode the company’s competitive position.
Yet the market’s attention has focused on management’s decision to cut its 2026 EBITDA margin guidance to 50% from approximately 52% and withdraw its medium term margin objective. The rationale is stronger than expected customer demand following the integration of Talon. One and Orb, prompting increased investment, primarily in technical talent, to capitalise on the opportunities emerging.
The market’s concerns are understandable. Removing a profitability target makes it harder to assess the returns on incremental spending. Management must now demonstrate that higher investment translates into sustainable growth and attractive shareholder returns.
However, we believe investors risk confusing a near term investment decision with a deterioration in the underlying business.
The payments industry is becoming increasingly complex, with merchants seeking integrated solutions spanning transaction processing, customer loyalty and subscription billing. Adyen’s expanded capabilities position it to address a broader range of customer needs, deepen relationships and capture a greater share of spending.
The platform business offers encouraging evidence of this opportunity, growing 44% at constant currency. The number of platforms processing more than €1 billion increased from 37 to 46 in a single quarter. Furthermore, newly signed customers are increasingly weighted towards larger enterprises and platforms, which typically take time to scale.
None of this guarantees that higher spending will generate superior returns. The lack of clear margin guidance is a legitimate concern, and execution will be critical. Nevertheless, the underlying growth trajectory suggests a business continuing to gain traction in an evolving market.
Our view is that the market may be placing too much weight on when Adyen achieves its margins and too little on what the business could become.
Higher investment may delay operating leverage, but it could also strengthen competitive advantages and expand Adyen’s long term growth opportunity. The critical test will be whether management converts customer demand into durable revenue growth and compelling returns on capital.
For investors willing to look beyond near term uncertainty, we believe Adyen’s long term potential remains compelling. The opportunity is there; management must now prove that its investment strategy can deliver.